PokéBonk guide
PokéBonk shiny odds explained
PokéBonk doesn’t use the 1-in-4096 odds of the main series. It rolls once per zone, and the numbers are surprisingly high – once you know what they mean.
The formula
P = [0.08 + min(0.08, Luck ÷ 1000)] × Charm
Charm is 1 normally and 1.5 once you own the Shiny Charm (6 shinies collected). The roll happens once, when you enter a new normal zone in Classic mode.
| Luck at the roll | No Shiny Charm | With Shiny Charm (×1.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 12% |
| 40 | 12% | 18% |
| 80 or more | 16% | 24% |
Odds per run
A Classic map has three normal zones, and each rolls independently:
| Luck | No Shiny Charm | With Shiny Charm | Expected shinies per run (charm) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.1% | 31.9% | 0.36 |
| 40 | 31.9% | 44.9% | 0.54 |
| 80 or more | 40.7% | 56.1% | 0.72 |
So even with maxed Luck and no Charm, you’ll come out of a run with no natural shiny about 59% of the time: (1 − 0.16)³ ≈ 59.3%.
How many runs until a shiny?
| Chance per zone | Zones | About how many 3-zone runs |
|---|---|---|
| 8% | 28 | 10 |
| 16% | 14 | 5 |
| 24% | 9 | 3 |
These are chances that a shiny is scheduled. You still have to reach it, weaken it and catch it – see how to get shiny Pokémon.
What the odds are not
| Common belief | What actually happens |
|---|---|
| Every enemy has a chance to be shiny | One roll per zone |
| More Luck mid-zone means another roll | No – new Luck counts from the next zone |
| A shiny in zone 1 means none in zones 2–3 | No – each zone rolls on its own |
| Waiting around triggers more rolls | No – the zone’s roll is used up |
| 16% is the catch chance | It’s the chance one appears |
| Luck 100+ means better shiny odds | Natural shiny odds stop improving at Luck 80 |
Classic shiny odds
The classic shiny (since 0.8.27) rolls separately in each zone:
P = [0.025 + min(0.025, Luck ÷ 3000)] × Charm
That’s 2.5% at 0 Luck, 5% at 75 Luck (its cap), and 7.5% with the Charm. Natural and classic rolls don’t block each other – one zone can give both. More in our classic shiny guide.
Which Pokémon you get
The game picks from the current zone’s spawn pool, skipping forms without animation, and prefers families you haven’t collected yet. If you’ve collected them all, it can repeat. Each candidate’s weight is 0.15 + 0.85 × catch rate ÷ 255, so common, easy-to-catch Pokémon come up more often than rare ones.
Related guides
- Luck in PokéBonk
- PokéBonk maps, zones and difficulty
- PokéBonk shiny hunting guide
- How to get shiny Pokémon in PokéBonk
- PokéBonk classic shiny: the second roll
- Best PokéBonk auto farm setup
Let ShinyDesk do the farming
Plays PokéBonk at normal speed and catches shinies while you’re away.